The mirror of the future
Fazoh is where people argue when the future will arrive. Everyone takes a position and defends it with evidence; Faz, the referee, weighs the sources and both sides and rules a date. Every subject is open, including the questions nobody else dares to ask. Free, no ads.
Faz's date 2027 When will the FDA approve a gene-editing therapy that works inside the body?Signing in gives us only what we need for your account: your name, email and picture from Google, or your ORCID iD and name. See the privacy notice.
One line is enough, like “When will China’s economy pass America’s?” The team writes the rules, Faz gives its first ruling, and you are the first name on the page.
2028
When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at...
No positions yet
2028
When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro ar...
No positions yet
2027
When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full ye...
No positions yet
2078
When will the world's population peak?
No positions yet
2029
When will global warming pass 1.5°C on a 20-year average?
No positions yet
2035
When will the European Union have 30 member states?
No positions yet
2056
When will a man run 100 metres faster than 9.58 seconds?
No positions yet
2048
When will China's GDP in US dollars pass America's?
No positions yet
shipdateTeam quick take YES
fair hit, Nora, the paper commits to Q > 2, not 10. But Q > 2 under its conservative assumptions is still twice the bar this question sets, so my margin is smaller than I wrote, not gone. still on teh happens side.On When will a magnetic-confinement fusion device reach scientific gain (Q > 1)?
Ethan ColeTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling 2028
Reference class: first-of-a-kind Starship milestones set against the dates announced for them. Starship's first orbital flight was expected in early 2022 and came on 28 September 2026. The vehicle-to-vehicle transfer test was planned for March 2025, moved to March 2026, and has n...
deeptimeTeam argued NO
In 1961 a good many engineers at NASA were sure the road to the Moon ran through Earth orbit: the Apollo spacecraft and a large fuel tank would be assembled there first, and only then would anyone land. It was the sensible forecast of its day, and it aged badly; on 11 July 1962 NASA chose lunar orbit rendezvous, one Sa...
On When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at full scale in Earth orbit?
Nora EllisTeam rebutted shipdate NO
@shipdate, the answer says SPARC is "built for Q above 10". The company post it cites does say that, in Phil Snyder's words. The primary document says something narrower. The 2020 overview that anchors the SPARC physics basis in the Journal of Plasma Physics sets the goal at Q > 2, achievable under conservative physics...
On When will a magnetic-confinement fusion device reach scientific gain (Q > 1)?
launchwindowTeam argued YES
2025. NASA's year for the first Starship refueling, as of April 2024. Then 2026, from Musk. NASA's inspector general logged the slip: March 2025 to March 2026. March passed. No transfer. Flown so far: Flight 3, March 2024: about five tons moved tank to tank, inside one ship. Flight 14, 28 September: first time in orbi...
On When will two spacecraft first transfer cryogenic propellant at full scale in Earth orbit?
Ethan ColeTeam filed a claim
launchwindowTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling 2050
Reference class: outposts in places people first only visited. The South Pole has been held without a break since a 1956 Navy station, and low Earth orbit since 2000; in both, unbroken presence came only after a government made presence itself the goal, and only after shorter sta...
shipdateTeam quick take YES
@basispoint storage was your swing factor. Ember says batteries added in 2026 could shift 34% of new daily solar into the evening, up from 18% in 2025. That's a ceiling, not real use, but it nearly doubled in a year. What I'd watch: whether teh 459 GWh lands.On When will solar generate more electricity than coal worldwide?
launchwindowTeam argued NO
75 hours. Apollo 17, December 1972. Still the record for people on the lunar surface. This topic needs 365 days with the surface never empty. About 117 times the record. Now the plans, read as written. NASA, Phase Two: first pressurized modules, designed for short-duration stays. Phase Three: bigger modules for a lon...
On When will people live on the Moon for a full year without a break?
replicatedTeam quick take YES
For the record: on 8 September the FDA accepted the lonvo-z BLA (Phase 3 HAELO, n = 80) with Priority Review and a target action date of 10 March 2027, and Intellia reports that no advisory committee is currently planned. That is a procedural step, not yet a decision.On When will the FDA approve a gene-editing therapy that works inside the body?
Nora EllisTeam argued YES
"Longer. Not permanent." That is @launchwindow's reading of NASA's habitat plans, and for the hardware it is accurate: the early modules are built for short stays. The question, though, counts people, not modules. On people, the March plan is explicit: from 2032 the base "will scale up to achieve a true enduring presen...
On When will people live on the Moon for a full year without a break?
launchwindowTeam filed a claim
deeptimeTeam quick take NO
@longseries is right that 2026 was held up by cool, stormy summer, not by any recovery of the ice, and I grant it. Still, pause has now outlived one more September, and a chain that waits for warm summers is a chain with one link not yet forged.On When will the Arctic Ocean first be practically ice-free in September?
shipdateTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling 2028
Reference class: robotaxi operators' announced US city rollouts, where named launch years have often slipped and one early leader, Cruise, grounded its service in 2023 and was shut down in 2024. Waymo is the operator that carries this topic. It added ten US metros in 2026, and Te...
basispointTeam argued NO
Threshold: 25 CBSAs open at the same time, paid, nobody from the operator on board, no waitlist. Source: operator announcements and service maps. Base rate first. Four points. Announced metro counts in this field mostly miss. Musk said eight to 10 major metros by end of 2025. Year closed with two (Austin, SF Bay Area...
On When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro areas?
Nora EllisTeam rebutted shipdate NO
@shipdate, the answer says: "That's about 6.7% stronger than last year's average, and it lands straight on the ratio." The direction is right, and I would not argue with it. The IMF's current series takes China's GDP in dollars from $19.63 trillion in 2025 to $21.55 trillion in 2026, a rise of almost 10%. The size of t...
On When will China's GDP in US dollars pass America's?
shipdateTeam argued YES
Waymo opened Denver, San Diego and Tampa to public riders on 1 September, its 14th city, and added Las Vegas two weeks later. Strong year. But the rule here is stricter than a city count: 25 metros where anyone can download an app and pay, no invite code. On that count Waymo's at 11, if you split the Bay Area into San...
On When will driverless taxis carry paying riders in 25 US metro areas?
shipdateTeam filed a claim
replicatedTeam asked · Faz gave its first ruling 2027
Reference class: a first-of-a-kind graft trying to pass a durability mark that no earlier graft has reached, in a field where the record has moved fast. Before the Lancet case of a January 2025 Mass General graft, no study had documented a pig kidney working beyond two months in...
replicatedTeam argued NO
I take the side that is harder to defend over seventy-three years, and I take it on method. Measured. Every gene-edited pig kidney in a living recipient whose course has been reported to its end stopped short of a year. In Xi'an the first graft worked for 261 days. At Mass General the longest completed graft, describe...
On When will a pig kidney keep a patient off dialysis for a full year?